Water You Waiting For?: NYPA’s Hydrologists Making Waves for Sustainability
Today is National Hydropower Day, and to celebrate, we are taking a look at our hydrologists at the New York Power Authority (NYPA). These talented experts in water dynamics study patterns in water flow and quality to optimize energy production and ensure environmental sustainability.
Hydrologists are NYPA’s resident water wizards, playing a crucial role in ensuring the smooth flow of energy and safety at our hydropower plants. From forecasting hydro generation levels to safeguarding dams and advancing sustainability projects, they harness the power of water to keep the lights on and protect our environment.
"I develop and manage computer models that help us predict how much energy our biggest hydro plants, Niagara and St. Lawrence, will produce in the coming weeks, months, and even years,” said Getnet, a senior hydrologist at NYPA. “These forecasts are super important because they guide NYPA's planning, making sure we stay on track with our energy goals and continue to provide reliable power to New York.”
A Day in the Life of a NYPA Hydrologist
For a hydrologist at NYPA, the days are filled with crunching numbers, managing projects, and teaming up with colleagues to ideate and solve problems. Getnet, for example, spends a great deal of time working with the Energy Resource Management team to fine-tune hydropower forecasts and make sure they know exactly how much energy NYPA’s biggest plants will produce.
“Collaboration is a key component of my work,” Getnet said. “I engage with colleagues and external partners on sustainability initiatives, such as assessing climate change impacts on hydropower generation and participating in various research projects. Additionally, I stay informed on the latest technologies and industry best practices by attending webinars, participating in technical working groups, and serving on technical committees.”
Using sophisticated computer models, Getnet and Bekalu, the other hydrologist at NYPA, analyze water levels and outflows in the Great Lakes from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ five-year forecasts to create an estimate of the corresponding outputs at our largest hydro projects – Niagara and St. Lawrence-Franklin D. Roosevelt.
“This process is quite complex,” Getnet explained. “The Great Lakes covers a vast watershed of about 300,000 square miles, stretching from Duluth, Lake Superior, all the way to the St. Lawrence-FDR Power Project. It is influenced by numerous factors, including regional hydrology, climate variability, global climatic patterns, climate change, and regulatory practices. Therefore, generation forecasting extends beyond the use of sophisticated computer models; it requires a holistic approach that considers various factors impacting the Great Lakes, both in the short term and up to five years into the future.”
Managing Water Resources Efficiently
Bekalu echoed these sentiments, adding, "I help manage and analyze our water resources to keep our hydroelectric power running smoothly. I work on energy forecasts, dam safety, and sustainability projects. My job is really important for making sure we use water efficiently and sustainably while sticking to environmental standards."
The model helps to optimize the operation of NYPA’s hydro units, taking everything into account. For example, while there are 13 units at Niagara’s Robert Moses Power Plant, if only 10 units are running due to maintenance, the model adjusts accordingly.
Additionally, since the Niagara River is an international waterway, NYPA’s hydrologists follow the management plan set by the Niagara River Control Center, which includes different water allocations for tourist and non-tourist seasons. The mathematical model continuously optimizes whether to generate power based on current needs or to store water for later use.
Reliable Water Sources: The Great Lakes Advantage
Unlike other regions in the United States, such as the western and southern parts, where rivers like the Columbia, Snake, and Colorado often experience droughts and floods, the Great Lakes provide a reliable source of water for NYPA’s power generation. "In these other regions, water shortages can severely impact both municipal supplies and industries," says Getnet.
But for NYPA, the Great Lakes — which represent over 21% of the world’s fresh water with nearly 5,500 cubic miles of storage — ensure a relatively consistent water supply. "The vast storage capacity of the Great Lakes minimizes variability and enables the prediction of water levels and flows years in advance, giving us ample time to prepare for future conditions," Getnet explains. This foresight is a significant advantage, allowing NYPA to plan effectively and maintain stability in our operations.
Getnet’s background in civil engineering, specializing in water resources, drew him to NYPA because of its numerous sustainability initiatives and the focus on integrating climate change into its planning. This aspect is particularly crucial, as NYPA’s hydrologists need to factor in climate change impacts into their power generation forecasting. "NYPA offers opportunities to improve our systems within a complex watershed of 300,000 square miles, including the Great Lakes," Getnet says. "I'm excited to contribute to these improvements and leave behind a positive legacy."
Looking Ahead: The Future of Hydrology and Clean Energy
Looking ahead, hydrologists will play a pivotal role in the future of NYPA and clean energy in New York State. Advances in technology, combined with their expertise in water resource management, have the potential to create more accurate water availability predictions for maximum energy output. "We're going to come up with strategies to adapt to climate change, like dealing with the ups and downs in precipitation and streamflow, to make sure our hydroelectric systems stay strong,” adds Bekalu. “Plus, we'll team up with engineers, environmental scientists, and other experts to push forward clean energy projects and achieve NYPA’s renewable energy and sustainability goals."